Valve’s Deadlock Is Already as Popular as Overwatch

Valve’s worst-kept secret, the hero-shooter-MOBA hybrid Deadlock, has managed to match the concurrent player count of Overwatch 2 despite practically not existing yet. It is a statistic that feels like a glitch in the matrix until you remember that this is Valve we are talking about, a company that could probably release a brooding text adventure about a sentient toaster and still top the Steam charts by lunchtime. The fact that an invite-only playtest is trading blows with established genre titans suggests the hunger for a new competitive obsession is far more desperate than publishers realized.

To be clear, Overwatch 2 is a fully released, free-to-play behemoth backed by Blizzard’s marketing machine and years of esports infrastructure. Deadlock, conversely, is technically in a closed testing phase so exclusive that seemingly everyone and their grandmother has an invite. While Blizzard struggles to maintain goodwill, Valve has deployed its classic strategy: silence, followed by a product that feels terrifyingly competent even in a rough state. The fact that an unfinished project—one that only officially acknowledged its own existence in late August—is holding steady against the genre’s reigning monarch speaks volumes about the current volatility of the live-service market.

Ghostware with a pulse

Let’s look at the numbers, because they are frankly ridiculous for a game you cannot technically buy. As tracked by SteamDB, Deadlock hit a peak concurrent user count of 171,490 players in September 2024. For context, while Overwatch 2 splits its user base between Battle.net and consoles, its Steam presence often struggles to break past the 50,000 mark. We have seen other shooters like Arc Raiders see player counts drop as the reality of gameplay sets in, yet Deadlock—a game that still features placeholder art and grey-box geometry—is commanding an army.

This isn’t just a successful beta; it is a humiliating flex on the entire industry. Valve has achieved with a “secret” invite link what other studios spend millions in marketing to miss. The retention is particularly notable. Most playtests see a sharp drop-off after the initial weekend hype, but the Source 2 shooter has maintained a healthy population, suggesting the core loop of destroying the enemy patron is sticky enough to keep people playing even without a progression system or polished skin economy.

Crowding out the competition

What makes this terrifying for the competition is Valve’s uncharacteristic responsiveness. Unlike the silence surrounding the mythical Half-Life 3 rumors, the development team here is pushing bi-weekly patches that significantly alter map geometry and hero balance. They are treating a closed test with the rigor of a full live service. With Bungie’s Marathon beta posing another potential threat on the horizon, Valve seems intent on squatting on the hero-shooter throne before anyone else can even pull up a chair.

The mechanics are deep, blending lane-pushing strategy with twitch shooting, and it is filling the exact void Overwatch left when it pivoted to 5v5 and abandoned its PvE ambitions. If Deadlock is this potent while it still looks like an unfinished mod, the industry should probably be very worried about what happens when Valve finally decides to finish painting the textures. We are left watching the strangest launch in recent memory: a game that has already won before it has technically even started.